U.S. Economy Faces Long-Term Recovery, C.B.O. Says


This briefing is no longer updating. Read the latest developments in the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak here.

The hit to the U.S. economy could last for a decade.

The Congressional Budget Office projected on Monday that the coronavirus pandemic could cost the United States economy $16 trillion over the next 10 years. When adjusting for inflation, the pandemic is projected to cause a $7.9 trillion, or 3 percent, loss in “real” G.D.P. through 2030.

The projections reflect the steep long-term toll that the pandemic is likely to take on the economy, which could experience dampened consumer spending and business investment in the years ahead. Much of the diminished output is projected to be the result of weaker inflation, as prices for energy and transportation increase more slowly than they otherwise would have as Americans pull back on travel.

Phillip L. Swagel, the director of the budget office, acknowledged that “an unusually high degree of uncertainty surrounds these economic projections” because of what remains unknown about the pandemic’s trajectory, as well as the impact of social distancing and the legislation enacted by the federal government.

“If future federal policies differ from those underlying C.B.O.’s economic projections — for example, if lawmakers enact additional pandemic-related legislation — then economic outcomes will necessarily differ from those presented here,” Mr. Swagel wrote in a letter to Senators Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, and Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent. The two senators had asked the budget office on Wednesday to examine the impact of the pandemic and the shuttering of local economies to combat the spread of the virus as lawmakers look to negotiate another round of economic aid.

In a joint statement following the release of the report, Mr. Schumer and Mr. Sanders said the estimate undercut Republican arguments that Congress should wait to approve another relief package, as well as President Trump’s call to include a tax cut in the next measure. “In order to avoid the risk of another Great Depression, the Senate must act with a fierce sense of urgency to make sure that everyone in America has the income they need to feed their families and put a roof over their heads,” the two senators said. “The American people cannot afford to wait another month for the Senate to pass legislation. They need our help now.”

New regulator warns that health measures, like masks, may hurt banks.

The new head of a powerful banking regulator is not letting his first full week on the job pass quietly, warning that measures meant to contain the spread of the coronavirus — including mandates for the use of masks in public — could endanger the financial system.

Airlines and airports around the world are doing everything they can to instill confidence that it is safe to fly again, despite the coronavirus pandemic.

Airlines are requiring face masks for passengers and staff, imposing new aircraft cleaning procedures, using social distancing to board flights, blocking middle seats on planes and, in one case, even prohibiting passengers from lining up to use plane bathrooms.

As to the airports, they are screening passengers’ temperatures through high- and low-tech means; using biometric screening to speed check-in, security and customs and immigration processes; and using autonomous robots to clean terminal floors.

But none of it is consistent. And it’s unclear whether the measures are enough.

“So much is uncertain right now,” said Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, a San Francisco travel analysis firm. “Do airports and airlines need to invest in something long-term that will be permanent, like airport security, or are these short-term, tactical responses?”

Dr. Joshua Schiffer, an infectious disease physician at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said, “It’s next to impossible to have complete confidence you won’t get infected” on flights. But he added that he hoped that airlines would provide travelers “publicly available information on what the projected risk would be to a certain destination, so you could choose your airline based on the quality of this information.”

The Paycheck Protection Program, the federal government’s ambitious effort to keep workers at small businesses off the unemployment rolls, was a lifeline for many businesses.

Target, Walmart and CVS shut stores amid protests.

A number of retailers, still reeling from the economic impact of the coronavirus shutdown, have temporarily closed some stores as protests and looting spread across the United States in the wake of the death of George Floyd.

U.S. stocks posted modest gains on Monday, continuing a recent climb that had left the S&P 500 with its best two-month gain in 11 years.

But many publishers and author have called it something different: theft.

“There is nothing innovative or transformative about making complete copies of books to which you have no rights and giving them away for free,” said Maria A. Pallante, president of the Association of American Publishers, which is helping to coordinate the industry’s response.

Traditional libraries pay licensing fees to publishers and agree to make them available for a particular period or a certain number of times. Internet Archive, on the other hand, acquires copies through donated or purchased books, which are then scanned and put online.

The lawsuit, which accused the Internet Archive of “willful mass copyright infringement,” was filed in federal court in Manhattan on behalf of Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins Publishers, John Wiley & Sons and Penguin Random House.

Brewster Kahle, the founder and digital librarian of the Internet Archive, defended his organization and said it was functioning as a library during the coronavirus pandemic, when physical libraries have been closed.

Catch up: Here’s what else is happening.

  • Marriott International’s chief executive, Arne M. Sorenson, said all of its Chinese hotels had reopened and occupancy levels were more than 40 percent, Reuters reported. Mr. Sorenson, speaking at the Goldman Sachs Travel and Leisure Conference on Monday, said the company’s open hotels in the United States had crossed the 20 percent occupancy threshold.

  • Nasdaq said Monday that it would postpone the planned reopening of its trading floor in Philadelphia, which had been closed because of the coronavirus pandemic, as protests in the city continued.

Reporting was contributed by Jane L. Levere, Elizabeth E. Harris, Emily Cochrane, Alan Rappeport, Conor Dougherty, Steve Lohr, Matt Richtel, Ron Lieber, Nellie Bowles, Carlos Tejada, Jason Karaian, Katie Robertson and Jeanna Smialek.



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